1 00:00:09,670 --> 00:00:03,700 [Music] 2 00:00:11,530 --> 00:00:09,680 I get really annoyed when people use up 3 00:00:13,780 --> 00:00:11,540 my question time to promote their thing 4 00:00:17,890 --> 00:00:13,790 so I'm gonna use my talk time to promote 5 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:17,900 my thing so quick quick announcement the 6 00:00:25,240 --> 00:00:21,050 NASA money for us early career people 7 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:25,250 came in last night at 10:00 p.m. so so 8 00:00:29,380 --> 00:00:26,930 so they actually delivered them the 9 00:00:31,810 --> 00:00:29,390 money before the meeting ended if if 10 00:00:35,069 --> 00:00:31,820 this describes you if you're in NASA if 11 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:35,079 you're a US graduate student or postdoc 12 00:00:43,150 --> 00:00:40,850 and that does include NYU ad there's 13 00:00:46,930 --> 00:00:43,160 some funding available to support travel 14 00:00:48,370 --> 00:00:46,940 here we're gonna cover the raised fee 15 00:00:50,049 --> 00:00:48,380 waivers first because he did that out of 16 00:00:56,310 --> 00:00:50,059 his personal research funds which great 17 00:01:01,030 --> 00:00:59,200 the important thing is don't send your 18 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:01,040 receipts in to your university for 19 00:01:05,410 --> 00:01:02,570 reimbursement because you can't get 20 00:01:07,690 --> 00:01:05,420 reimbursed for the same thing twice and 21 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:07,700 I will follow up in an e-mail early next 22 00:01:13,510 --> 00:01:12,170 week okay and then also there was a 23 00:01:15,609 --> 00:01:13,520 bunch of stuff this morning about 24 00:01:17,890 --> 00:01:15,619 needing more measurements in the lab of 25 00:01:20,469 --> 00:01:17,900 various things we just hired two new 26 00:01:21,940 --> 00:01:20,479 faculty cari Donaldson Hannah was just 27 00:01:24,310 --> 00:01:21,950 hired this year Chris Bennett was hired 28 00:01:26,620 --> 00:01:24,320 a couple of years ago and they do 29 00:01:29,170 --> 00:01:26,630 astrochemistry spectroscopy surface 30 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:29,180 processes in the lab they'll also do 31 00:01:32,859 --> 00:01:31,010 some things that are not straight up on 32 00:01:34,539 --> 00:01:32,869 the surface so if you want to produce 33 00:01:38,219 --> 00:01:34,549 the measured talk to them and our 34 00:01:40,300 --> 00:01:38,229 website is planets that UCF that edu and 35 00:01:40,810 --> 00:01:40,310 finally if you didn't sign up for dinner 36 00:01:45,130 --> 00:01:40,820 either 37 00:01:47,530 --> 00:01:45,140 you talk to me okay all right so so I 38 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:47,540 put up this slide in like when I when I 39 00:01:52,300 --> 00:01:50,090 brought this topic up on Monday so the 40 00:01:54,670 --> 00:01:52,310 the SETI community has this scale that 41 00:01:57,760 --> 00:01:54,680 they developed in Rio in 2005 updated in 42 00:01:59,740 --> 00:01:57,770 2018 and they they call it an excitement 43 00:02:02,530 --> 00:01:59,750 level which is maybe not an appropriate 44 00:02:05,410 --> 00:02:02,540 thing for their topic and they're there 45 00:02:07,569 --> 00:02:05,420 they their formulas are equals two times 46 00:02:10,869 --> 00:02:07,579 Delta and Q is the consequence of the 47 00:02:13,479 --> 00:02:10,879 signal and Delta is the credibility of 48 00:02:15,970 --> 00:02:13,489 the signal and we kind of in our 49 00:02:19,119 --> 00:02:15,980 discussions this week we kind of have 50 00:02:21,220 --> 00:02:19,129 started that much of their scale we 51 00:02:23,799 --> 00:02:21,230 pretty much throughout the rest of it 52 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:23,809 but but maybe that's well if we can 53 00:02:29,559 --> 00:02:28,370 we'll continue to talk about that so the 54 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:29,569 other thing and we didn't talk about 55 00:02:32,949 --> 00:02:31,010 this in our breakout meeting the other 56 00:02:34,599 --> 00:02:32,959 day but we did I'd have talked about it 57 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:34,609 a lot with individuals people seem to 58 00:02:40,869 --> 00:02:38,090 like this kind of language for the 59 00:02:43,030 --> 00:02:40,879 description of new observations so if 60 00:02:45,159 --> 00:02:43,040 you've got you know if you if you see 61 00:02:46,629 --> 00:02:45,169 something and you you've you're you know 62 00:02:50,530 --> 00:02:46,639 you're you're announcing a discovery you 63 00:02:52,599 --> 00:02:50,540 call it a speculative signal and once it 64 00:02:54,189 --> 00:02:52,609 goes through the process of having you 65 00:02:55,509 --> 00:02:54,199 know increased verification and 66 00:02:58,299 --> 00:02:55,519 demonstrating that it's not instrumental 67 00:03:00,789 --> 00:02:58,309 and so forth you can start calling it 68 00:03:02,140 --> 00:03:00,799 things like you know a verified signal a 69 00:03:05,679 --> 00:03:02,150 candidate's signal in an actual 70 00:03:08,110 --> 00:03:05,689 discovery those conservative words 71 00:03:09,610 --> 00:03:08,120 prevent us from overhyping and really 72 00:03:11,679 --> 00:03:09,620 what it does is it prevents the media 73 00:03:13,599 --> 00:03:11,689 from EE overhyping you're not very 74 00:03:14,890 --> 00:03:13,609 overhyped it's press release which 75 00:03:18,099 --> 00:03:14,900 they'd like to do or at least some of 76 00:03:20,589 --> 00:03:18,109 them like to do a process keeps the 77 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:20,599 public engaged in what we do longer so 78 00:03:24,159 --> 00:03:22,370 if they if you say you know I've got a 79 00:03:25,780 --> 00:03:24,169 speculative signal on the next step is 80 00:03:30,489 --> 00:03:25,790 for somebody else to go look at it and 81 00:03:32,199 --> 00:03:30,499 and and verify it then people know that 82 00:03:34,659 --> 00:03:32,209 there's maybe they're maybe gonna hear 83 00:03:36,250 --> 00:03:34,669 more about this and then finally that 84 00:03:37,959 --> 00:03:36,260 discovery is something that the field 85 00:03:43,959 --> 00:03:37,969 does when science works and we have 86 00:03:45,399 --> 00:03:43,969 consensus about a result okay so these 87 00:03:47,649 --> 00:03:45,409 are the questions I put up should we 88 00:03:49,569 --> 00:03:47,659 adopt these terms was the first question 89 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:49,579 I'm curious how people feel about that 90 00:03:53,589 --> 00:03:52,010 so let's do a show of hands if you like 91 00:03:54,579 --> 00:03:53,599 that idea meaning like it well enough 92 00:03:56,109 --> 00:03:54,589 that you're gonna do it in your own 93 00:03:59,349 --> 00:03:56,119 press release call your own press 94 00:04:00,879 --> 00:03:59,359 release speculate on the first go let me 95 00:04:03,729 --> 00:04:00,889 see what that how many people feel good 96 00:04:07,569 --> 00:04:03,739 with that many people don't feel so good 97 00:04:10,329 --> 00:04:07,579 with that okay how many people aren't 98 00:04:12,989 --> 00:04:10,339 sure all right now how many people 99 00:04:17,199 --> 00:04:12,999 didn't raise their hand no anyway okay 100 00:04:21,429 --> 00:04:17,209 so I see not consensus but but certainly 101 00:04:23,439 --> 00:04:21,439 a lot of interest in in terms like that 102 00:04:25,749 --> 00:04:23,449 so maybe we can may find some terms that 103 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:25,759 aren't quite so derogatory but maybe 104 00:04:32,919 --> 00:04:28,849 also don't call something so 105 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:32,929 on the first go all right as far as I 106 00:04:37,959 --> 00:04:35,330 know at this point there is not yet a 107 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:37,969 scale for this in the works there was 108 00:04:43,419 --> 00:04:40,849 mention of a paper by Dave Catlin which 109 00:04:45,969 --> 00:04:43,429 is a nice description of how to do 110 00:04:47,499 --> 00:04:45,979 Bayesian analysis on bio signatures so 111 00:04:48,999 --> 00:04:47,509 that's part of what we're interested in 112 00:04:52,179 --> 00:04:49,009 but it doesn't talk about things like 113 00:04:54,129 --> 00:04:52,189 meeting multiple observations or you 114 00:04:58,029 --> 00:04:54,139 know whether the signal might be 115 00:05:02,109 --> 00:04:58,039 confused for something else we I guess 116 00:05:04,570 --> 00:05:02,119 we're making a scale in our discussion 117 00:05:06,159 --> 00:05:04,580 we kind of decided the real to the 118 00:05:08,169 --> 00:05:06,169 details of Rio to were a little bit too 119 00:05:09,639 --> 00:05:08,179 complicated for us and I think that 120 00:05:12,459 --> 00:05:09,649 might be possible for them because 121 00:05:14,409 --> 00:05:12,469 they've thought a lot about specifically 122 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:14,419 the kinds of signals they expect to see 123 00:05:18,070 --> 00:05:16,490 and it's a pretty much narrower range of 124 00:05:20,589 --> 00:05:18,080 I think it's a narrow range of ideas 125 00:05:24,639 --> 00:05:20,599 than then the kinds of things that we 126 00:05:28,989 --> 00:05:24,649 are talking about for for non 127 00:05:31,719 --> 00:05:28,999 intelligent life so we didn't we didn't 128 00:05:34,449 --> 00:05:31,729 like the complexity we stuck to 129 00:05:37,689 --> 00:05:34,459 something a little bit more conceptually 130 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:37,699 simple so we developed a draft scale 131 00:05:42,069 --> 00:05:40,610 which I'll show you shortly and bring it 132 00:05:43,540 --> 00:05:42,079 back here for discussion I don't know if 133 00:05:45,459 --> 00:05:43,550 we're ready to vote on something but at 134 00:05:46,899 --> 00:05:45,469 least we'll ask if you know people think 135 00:05:49,359 --> 00:05:46,909 it's a reasonable idea to proceed with 136 00:05:51,309 --> 00:05:49,369 the next step is to develop a paper and 137 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:51,319 a website and the website is important 138 00:05:55,029 --> 00:05:52,849 because the papers gonna talk to our 139 00:05:58,119 --> 00:05:55,039 colleagues the websites gonna talk to 140 00:05:59,619 --> 00:05:58,129 the press and people who are reading 141 00:06:02,469 --> 00:05:59,629 stuff and wondering what this scale is 142 00:06:04,209 --> 00:06:02,479 and so forth so that website is probably 143 00:06:05,709 --> 00:06:04,219 as important for the success of this 144 00:06:07,179 --> 00:06:05,719 thing as a paper if we just publish a 145 00:06:10,329 --> 00:06:07,189 paper it will it will dive into some 146 00:06:12,129 --> 00:06:10,339 journal and never come out if you're 147 00:06:14,109 --> 00:06:12,139 interested in in joining us and you 148 00:06:17,259 --> 00:06:14,119 haven't yet please send me an email 149 00:06:18,609 --> 00:06:17,269 I'm JH at physics that UCF I didi you 150 00:06:21,699 --> 00:06:18,619 and of course I put that last which 151 00:06:24,339 --> 00:06:21,709 means I better wait 11 seconds for 152 00:06:28,029 --> 00:06:24,349 people to note it maybe I don't have to 153 00:06:29,799 --> 00:06:28,039 way to fall 11 seconds okay alright so 154 00:06:32,230 --> 00:06:29,809 this is what we kind of came up with as 155 00:06:33,790 --> 00:06:32,240 a ballpark thing and that the key item 156 00:06:36,669 --> 00:06:33,800 for us was a great idea by Peter 157 00:06:39,339 --> 00:06:36,679 Wheatley which is that if you don't have 158 00:06:41,239 --> 00:06:39,349 someone's periodically people will 159 00:06:42,979 --> 00:06:41,249 forget that you exist 160 00:06:44,749 --> 00:06:42,989 I think that's the problem with Rio it 161 00:06:45,979 --> 00:06:44,759 was so hard it's so hard to get a one in 162 00:06:48,889 --> 00:06:45,989 Rio that I don't know that it's ever 163 00:06:51,589 --> 00:06:48,899 happened and so as a consequence Rio in 164 00:06:52,999 --> 00:06:51,599 2005 there were you know maybe some 165 00:06:55,069 --> 00:06:53,009 discussions at some point and people 166 00:06:57,019 --> 00:06:55,079 talked about it and then the people can 167 00:06:58,249 --> 00:06:57,029 attend it to stop using it so on the 168 00:06:59,899 --> 00:06:58,259 other hand the Torino scale for 169 00:07:01,429 --> 00:06:59,909 asteroids they've got four or five 170 00:07:02,989 --> 00:07:01,439 asteroids a year there were a one in 171 00:07:05,329 --> 00:07:02,999 there scale so people keep using and 172 00:07:07,399 --> 00:07:05,339 hearing about their scale so we decided 173 00:07:09,259 --> 00:07:07,409 a one would be a place that life could 174 00:07:10,639 --> 00:07:09,269 exist like it like you don't 175 00:07:12,319 --> 00:07:10,649 automatically rule it out like a 176 00:07:13,339 --> 00:07:12,329 terrestrial planet and have habitable 177 00:07:15,350 --> 00:07:13,349 zone and I know we have to go argue 178 00:07:16,669 --> 00:07:15,360 about what the habitable zone is but but 179 00:07:19,009 --> 00:07:16,679 that's all sort of part of the process 180 00:07:21,169 --> 00:07:19,019 and a2 is maybe a place where life 181 00:07:22,909 --> 00:07:21,179 should exist like an ocean so maybe 182 00:07:24,109 --> 00:07:22,919 you've got a specular reflection or 183 00:07:25,789 --> 00:07:24,119 something like that you have evidence 184 00:07:28,549 --> 00:07:25,799 for an ocean that would be pushing it 185 00:07:30,709 --> 00:07:28,559 toward a two three or four would be an 186 00:07:32,239 --> 00:07:30,719 individual bio signature and you would 187 00:07:34,249 --> 00:07:32,249 go three or four depending on how 188 00:07:35,089 --> 00:07:34,259 convincing that kind of bio signature 189 00:07:37,189 --> 00:07:35,099 was in the community 190 00:07:39,409 --> 00:07:37,199 five to seven would be multiple 191 00:07:41,509 --> 00:07:39,419 independent bio signatures and this 192 00:07:42,799 --> 00:07:41,519 really damn good buy a signature would 193 00:07:45,499 --> 00:07:42,809 be eight to ten that would be something 194 00:07:47,989 --> 00:07:45,509 like a high-resolution spectrum of a 195 00:07:49,819 --> 00:07:47,999 molecule that can only be produced by 196 00:07:52,879 --> 00:07:49,829 life and I don't mean like phosphine I 197 00:07:55,509 --> 00:07:52,889 mean like chlorophyll and then we had a 198 00:08:00,289 --> 00:07:55,519 question right what if you found CFCs 199 00:08:02,259 --> 00:08:00,299 okay so if you if you can convince us 200 00:08:06,289 --> 00:08:02,269 that CFCs cannot be produced naturally 201 00:08:07,939 --> 00:08:06,299 then CFCs might be something in here but 202 00:08:11,719 --> 00:08:07,949 they would certainly be something in 203 00:08:13,399 --> 00:08:11,729 there and so and it's with CFCs maybe 204 00:08:14,509 --> 00:08:13,409 it's something in here and then you call 205 00:08:16,069 --> 00:08:14,519 up your Shetty friends since they go 206 00:08:17,269 --> 00:08:16,079 look at that planet and then maybe 207 00:08:21,919 --> 00:08:17,279 they'll come back with some additional 208 00:08:24,350 --> 00:08:21,929 line of lines of evidence okay we did 209 00:08:25,489 --> 00:08:24,360 not talk quantitatively about signal 210 00:08:27,859 --> 00:08:25,499 quality we've pretty much spent all of 211 00:08:30,739 --> 00:08:27,869 our time on the state on the the the 212 00:08:33,049 --> 00:08:30,749 signal interpretation scale but we did 213 00:08:34,819 --> 00:08:33,059 have some general agreement on some 214 00:08:36,439 --> 00:08:34,829 items that we want to see in a highly 215 00:08:38,509 --> 00:08:36,449 rated signal like multiple observations 216 00:08:41,389 --> 00:08:38,519 multiple analyses by different teams 217 00:08:43,369 --> 00:08:41,399 multiple instruments reliable or 218 00:08:46,009 --> 00:08:43,379 respectable methods or instruments so if 219 00:08:50,119 --> 00:08:46,019 you're talking about you know a 10 ppm 220 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:50,129 result with Spitzer no but you know 221 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:52,290 perhaps with other telescopes standing 222 00:08:54,940 --> 00:08:53,730 the test of time so there's time for 223 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:54,950 people to come up with 224 00:08:58,450 --> 00:08:56,810 alternative ways of interpreting the 225 00:09:01,000 --> 00:08:58,460 data alternative ways of analyzing the 226 00:09:03,670 --> 00:09:01,010 data and so perhaps we'll end up with a 227 00:09:06,790 --> 00:09:03,680 0 to 1 scale that multiplies the other 228 00:09:08,590 --> 00:09:06,800 scale because everybody likes 1 to 10 so 229 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:08,600 this is the Torino scale and you'll 230 00:09:13,330 --> 00:09:10,250 notice that it's got these sort of 231 00:09:15,460 --> 00:09:13,340 diagonal zones so as you as your your 232 00:09:18,060 --> 00:09:15,470 level of concern increases the level of 233 00:09:20,770 --> 00:09:18,070 probability that you care about drops 234 00:09:23,110 --> 00:09:20,780 here's the what I'm sort of a quick 235 00:09:27,100 --> 00:09:23,120 graphic I made out of out of ours and so 236 00:09:30,130 --> 00:09:27,110 your your 9 and 10 are up here that's 0 237 00:09:33,100 --> 00:09:30,140 here's 1 and 2 so if you're if this is 238 00:09:35,050 --> 00:09:33,110 the the scale I gave you before for the 239 00:09:36,850 --> 00:09:35,060 significance of the evidence and this is 240 00:09:38,590 --> 00:09:36,860 the quality of the evidence this is that 241 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:38,600 that last slide where you maybe go from 242 00:09:42,730 --> 00:09:40,610 0 to 1 so if you've got a really firm 243 00:09:46,690 --> 00:09:42,740 detection of a terrestrial planet your 244 00:09:49,810 --> 00:09:46,700 zero 1 and then if you've got a really 245 00:09:51,310 --> 00:09:49,820 firm detection of a single bio signature 246 00:09:52,990 --> 00:09:51,320 it's going to be in this range you've 247 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:53,000 got kind of a weak detection of a single 248 00:09:57,550 --> 00:09:54,890 biosignature you're probably still at 2 249 00:09:59,350 --> 00:09:57,560 and and you know maybe the curvature 250 00:10:00,580 --> 00:09:59,360 exact placement disease curves get 251 00:10:05,560 --> 00:10:00,590 shipped around but that's the general 252 00:10:07,630 --> 00:10:05,570 idea so next steps quantify that signal 253 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:07,640 quality scale and and how we combine the 254 00:10:12,940 --> 00:10:10,730 two we obviously we need to involve some 255 00:10:14,970 --> 00:10:12,950 more bio signature experts than we 256 00:10:18,850 --> 00:10:14,980 currently have which is approximately 1 257 00:10:20,950 --> 00:10:18,860 i it's been suggested that we include a 258 00:10:22,930 --> 00:10:20,960 philosopher some press officers and some 259 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:22,940 press people just to see that this could 260 00:10:29,170 --> 00:10:27,530 actually be be used evaluating examples 261 00:10:30,940 --> 00:10:29,180 independently coming up with idea with 262 00:10:32,680 --> 00:10:30,950 with you know if I had a such and such 263 00:10:34,510 --> 00:10:32,690 quality observation of this particular 264 00:10:35,890 --> 00:10:34,520 bias hit room how would you rate it and 265 00:10:37,660 --> 00:10:35,900 give that to a bunch of people and see 266 00:10:39,670 --> 00:10:37,670 that you can actually use this rating 267 00:10:40,990 --> 00:10:39,680 system consistently would certainly be 268 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:41,000 something we have to do they did it for 269 00:10:47,770 --> 00:10:44,170 Rio Rio did a bunch of statistical tests 270 00:10:50,170 --> 00:10:47,780 and so we may may need to do that and 271 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:50,180 then finally coming up with a website 272 00:10:55,090 --> 00:10:52,730 examples a bunch of popular level 273 00:10:57,910 --> 00:10:55,100 explanations and I everything has to be 274 00:10:59,920 --> 00:10:57,920 an app doesn't it okay we publish it and 275 00:11:01,330 --> 00:10:59,930 then that's actually not the end because 276 00:11:04,780 --> 00:11:01,340 then we'll actually have the catalog 277 00:11:07,900 --> 00:11:04,790 every claim on the site we're on this 278 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:07,910 website we would have to actually you 279 00:11:10,469 --> 00:11:08,290 know 280 00:11:11,999 --> 00:11:10,479 not just assume that people are going to 281 00:11:13,319 --> 00:11:12,009 use it but go after people who didn't 282 00:11:15,780 --> 00:11:13,329 use it and say hey could you rate on the 283 00:11:17,369 --> 00:11:15,790 scale encourage media people to ask that 284 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:17,379 question right you get called up as an 285 00:11:21,239 --> 00:11:19,689 expert and sales and and one of the 286 00:11:23,099 --> 00:11:21,249 questions you're gonna get is hey these 287 00:11:25,999 --> 00:11:23,109 guys you know made this bio signature 288 00:11:29,309 --> 00:11:26,009 what what scale rating do you give it um 289 00:11:33,090 --> 00:11:29,319 so and then I threw in here because 290 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:33,100 these are going to go up on a on the on 291 00:11:36,059 --> 00:11:34,569 the exit climbs website I've just thrown 292 00:11:38,759 --> 00:11:36,069 in here that the papers that we've been 293 00:11:40,859 --> 00:11:38,769 talking about so far so for the original 294 00:11:43,799 --> 00:11:40,869 Torino scale this is the REO reference 295 00:11:46,829 --> 00:11:43,809 or the couple of REO references there's 296 00:11:48,599 --> 00:11:46,839 an in situ scale that we found the 297 00:11:51,929 --> 00:11:48,609 ladder of life detection which includes 298 00:11:53,219 --> 00:11:51,939 a bunch of NASA executive people and and 299 00:11:54,569 --> 00:11:53,229 some people that probably actually did 300 00:11:56,279 --> 00:11:54,579 the work I don't actually don't know 301 00:11:59,939 --> 00:11:56,289 this paper so maybe the nasa execs also 302 00:12:01,739 --> 00:11:59,949 did some work and but this is for in 303 00:12:04,650 --> 00:12:01,749 situ measurements of life in the solar 304 00:12:07,169 --> 00:12:04,660 system and then finally the capping 305 00:12:09,210 --> 00:12:07,179 paper and they're actually a pretty good 306 00:12:11,159 --> 00:12:09,220 number of wikipedia and other popular 307 00:12:14,549 --> 00:12:11,169 articles and sites and so forth which I 308 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:14,559 did in catalog so I will go back to 309 00:12:19,330 --> 00:12:30,400 [Applause] 310 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:33,770 tymberlee yeah in addition to bio 311 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:35,490 signatures on the scale I wonder if we 312 00:12:39,620 --> 00:12:37,410 should include pre bio signatures that 313 00:12:42,590 --> 00:12:39,630 is signatures that prebiotic chemistry 314 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:42,600 is actually happening things like HCN 315 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:45,330 detections and other prebiotic molecules 316 00:12:52,220 --> 00:12:48,450 hdn detections in a in a habitable zone 317 00:12:55,670 --> 00:12:52,230 planet would so get you up to maybe like 318 00:12:58,040 --> 00:12:55,680 a 1.5 or yeah I mean so this an ocean 319 00:12:59,510 --> 00:12:58,050 wouldn't be the only way to get here and 320 00:13:01,700 --> 00:12:59,520 neither would a terrestrial planet be 321 00:13:03,560 --> 00:13:01,710 the only way to get there this is sort 322 00:13:05,690 --> 00:13:03,570 of the the weight of the evidence is 323 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:05,700 like you've you've got a rock that might 324 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:07,050 have the right temperature and then 325 00:13:11,990 --> 00:13:09,930 you've got some some things that we 326 00:13:14,390 --> 00:13:12,000 think should be there and and maybe 327 00:13:15,650 --> 00:13:14,400 maybe something like a prebiotic 328 00:13:17,330 --> 00:13:15,660 chemistry would be in here although I 329 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:17,340 think anything that can be explained 330 00:13:23,450 --> 00:13:19,530 abiotic Leawood sort of not convince 331 00:13:25,130 --> 00:13:23,460 anybody so well there's HCN supposedly 332 00:13:27,350 --> 00:13:25,140 and some of that Jupiter's maybe that's 333 00:13:29,210 --> 00:13:27,360 too hot I don't know but but but yeah 334 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:29,220 they I wanted to be really clear that 335 00:13:32,750 --> 00:13:31,410 this is not these are absolutely not the 336 00:13:36,140 --> 00:13:32,760 only ways to get there right these are 337 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:36,150 these are just examples of ways of 338 00:13:40,850 --> 00:13:37,170 moving on the scale 339 00:13:42,290 --> 00:13:40,860 I came by University of Washington I 340 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:42,300 just wanted to bring up a few 341 00:13:45,680 --> 00:13:44,250 bookkeeping things first of all I love 342 00:13:46,910 --> 00:13:45,690 this idea I love where this is headed 343 00:13:50,630 --> 00:13:46,920 and I've talked to you about this a 344 00:13:52,490 --> 00:13:50,640 little bit but I would implore us to 345 00:13:53,660 --> 00:13:52,500 open this up to the community even more 346 00:13:55,430 --> 00:13:53,670 and make sure that more of the community 347 00:13:56,690 --> 00:13:55,440 is hearing about it I love EXO going 348 00:13:58,610 --> 00:13:56,700 presence flow and I get to meet all of 349 00:13:59,930 --> 00:13:58,620 you but there's various other of us here 350 00:14:01,430 --> 00:13:59,940 so maybe I don't know if we can talk 351 00:14:03,350 --> 00:14:01,440 about this more like Sibelius or 352 00:14:04,700 --> 00:14:03,360 something I like make this more public 353 00:14:06,140 --> 00:14:04,710 in the meantime that would be really 354 00:14:08,990 --> 00:14:06,150 great absolutely and that would ensure 355 00:14:11,630 --> 00:14:09,000 that the community would use it also 356 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:11,640 bringing in a philosopher I heard some 357 00:14:17,750 --> 00:14:14,730 people scoff and I like the idea of 358 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:17,760 bringing in a science historian there's 359 00:14:20,570 --> 00:14:19,410 a lot of insight that those kind of 360 00:14:22,940 --> 00:14:20,580 people with those backgrounds can give 361 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:22,950 us and said like how to not screw this 362 00:14:25,579 --> 00:14:25,050 up and totally miss communicate with the 363 00:14:27,980 --> 00:14:25,589 public 364 00:14:32,180 --> 00:14:27,990 in ways that have been done before and 365 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:32,190 lastly just to think about the balance 366 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:33,450 of the science impact and you kind of 367 00:14:37,410 --> 00:14:34,890 touched on this not getting too bogged 368 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:37,420 down with the methods because we may not 369 00:14:42,540 --> 00:14:40,450 anticipate realistically how we detect 370 00:14:44,310 --> 00:14:42,550 these bio signatures and just kind of 371 00:14:49,490 --> 00:14:44,320 broad scale I did I wanted to bring up 372 00:14:56,850 --> 00:14:49,500 with you on thank you yes like fully yes 373 00:14:59,640 --> 00:14:56,860 I also think it's a great idea I have a 374 00:15:02,310 --> 00:14:59,650 question regarding the point two and 375 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:02,320 three well okay actually a point three 376 00:15:09,660 --> 00:15:07,210 and four so the second one that says a 377 00:15:12,540 --> 00:15:09,670 place life should exist example an ocean 378 00:15:14,580 --> 00:15:12,550 it could be I think an amazing thing to 379 00:15:17,250 --> 00:15:14,590 discover and say that there is an ocean 380 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:17,260 in such a planet and maybe and the way 381 00:15:21,390 --> 00:15:18,850 that the field is going now it may be 382 00:15:24,270 --> 00:15:21,400 easier to detect by a signature in the 383 00:15:25,950 --> 00:15:24,280 atmosphere so it kind of beast doesn't 384 00:15:28,380 --> 00:15:25,960 reflect the relevance of such a 385 00:15:30,090 --> 00:15:28,390 discovery and I mean may all we can 386 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:30,100 discuss about I don't think you need an 387 00:15:36,390 --> 00:15:33,730 ocean to get to three I mean if you look 388 00:15:38,940 --> 00:15:36,400 at point two you have place life should 389 00:15:40,980 --> 00:15:38,950 exist in it's written an ocean and then 390 00:15:42,690 --> 00:15:40,990 three and four if the detection of a 391 00:15:44,700 --> 00:15:42,700 single by a signature I mean I kind of 392 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:44,710 think that the relevance of a discovery 393 00:15:48,570 --> 00:15:47,050 like you might give it a two and then 394 00:15:49,890 --> 00:15:48,580 the people will think this is not 395 00:15:53,220 --> 00:15:49,900 relevant but actually would be an 396 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:53,230 amazing thing to have you know what I 397 00:15:58,710 --> 00:15:55,450 mean we can be late I'll be happy to 398 00:16:04,140 --> 00:15:58,720 discuss I think the reason we made this 399 00:16:05,730 --> 00:16:04,150 one before that one is that well I don't 400 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:05,740 I don't know if you have an ocean do you 401 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:09,370 automatically have life no no maybe I 402 00:16:15,870 --> 00:16:13,930 don't maybe maybe you know but these 403 00:16:17,910 --> 00:16:15,880 things being called bio signatures to be 404 00:16:20,540 --> 00:16:17,920 comet being called that because that's 405 00:16:23,730 --> 00:16:20,550 supposed to be the only or the principal 406 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:23,740 place you can get that from so if you 407 00:16:28,470 --> 00:16:26,650 this is less believable as an indicator 408 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:28,480 of life than that if you get this 409 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:30,370 without that great jump right the three 410 00:16:36,930 --> 00:16:35,290 or four if that's not convincing and 411 00:16:42,140 --> 00:16:36,940 then I don't understand your point okay 412 00:16:47,070 --> 00:16:45,150 regarding the catalog is there a plan 413 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:47,080 for like community verification of 414 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:48,210 submitted 415 00:16:51,630 --> 00:16:50,650 constable bio signatures you know 416 00:16:53,130 --> 00:16:51,640 sending out 417 00:16:54,930 --> 00:16:53,140 to a maybe book I've been getting 418 00:16:59,220 --> 00:16:54,940 everyone say yes I agreed it should be a 419 00:17:00,870 --> 00:16:59,230 5 or the the way the other skills are 420 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:00,880 working is that everybody makes their 421 00:17:03,930 --> 00:17:02,410 own evaluation and the reason for that 422 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:03,940 is the press doesn't want to wait weeks 423 00:17:05,699 --> 00:17:05,290 for you to go and have your committee 424 00:17:09,150 --> 00:17:05,709 meeting 425 00:17:12,090 --> 00:17:09,160 so you met you say in your press release 426 00:17:13,890 --> 00:17:12,100 we think this is a three and they go and 427 00:17:15,210 --> 00:17:13,900 ask experts and the experts say yeah I 428 00:17:18,780 --> 00:17:15,220 agree this is the three their experts 429 00:17:20,910 --> 00:17:18,790 say no no this is only a one and if that 430 00:17:23,250 --> 00:17:20,920 even that disagreement if it is a 431 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:23,260 disagreement is indicative of you know 432 00:17:34,050 --> 00:17:26,050 the quality of your of your signal and 433 00:17:37,050 --> 00:17:34,060 your and your bio signature that's 434 00:17:39,780 --> 00:17:37,060 somebody here to make up this team two 435 00:17:42,450 --> 00:17:39,790 quick points firstly my understandings 436 00:17:44,940 --> 00:17:42,460 from the from the Rio scale is that like 437 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:44,950 you said they really get high numbers at 438 00:17:48,930 --> 00:17:47,290 all but that's not because they can't 439 00:17:51,570 --> 00:17:48,940 right now it's just because the criteria 440 00:17:53,850 --> 00:17:51,580 harsh whereas with this criteria some of 441 00:17:57,300 --> 00:17:53,860 those are actually inaccessible to us 442 00:17:58,980 --> 00:17:57,310 for the near future so that's some 443 00:18:01,560 --> 00:17:58,990 that's going to naturally truncate it so 444 00:18:03,810 --> 00:18:01,570 but the other point is that for point 445 00:18:08,700 --> 00:18:03,820 number one I mean one of the issues that 446 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:08,710 I tend to rage about when it comes to 447 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:10,090 the abalone because I work on the handle 448 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:12,930 zone a lot and when we use phrases like 449 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:16,930 earth-like and temperate planet then 450 00:18:22,350 --> 00:18:19,930 those there's a suggest you know there's 451 00:18:24,630 --> 00:18:22,360 a claim there about the knowledge of the 452 00:18:28,380 --> 00:18:24,640 surface conditions which we can't back 453 00:18:30,540 --> 00:18:28,390 out and so unless we include a 454 00:18:32,430 --> 00:18:30,550 constraint on using those kind of 455 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:32,440 phrases you know point number one then 456 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:34,450 we're going to continue to have the kind 457 00:18:40,380 --> 00:18:37,570 of hyperbolic press releases that was 458 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:40,390 that's a very good point and I think so 459 00:18:45,390 --> 00:18:43,570 maybe what we need to do up here is get 460 00:18:49,170 --> 00:18:45,400 specific in the things that we're 461 00:18:51,990 --> 00:18:49,180 actually already having and then as as 462 00:18:54,030 --> 00:18:52,000 time goes on you know we'll need to do 463 00:18:57,090 --> 00:18:54,040 that in these other categories and these 464 00:18:58,980 --> 00:18:57,100 sales tend to get revised as science 465 00:19:02,040 --> 00:18:58,990 progresses and so I think we can 466 00:19:03,660 --> 00:19:02,050 probably although I am I fear the 467 00:19:05,370 --> 00:19:03,670 argument but we can probably do 468 00:19:08,550 --> 00:19:05,380 something that's a little bit better 469 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:08,560 than what's just written here for item 470 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:10,690 one and possibly even for item two and 471 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:13,090 then I have no idea what we would do 472 00:19:16,590 --> 00:19:14,410 down here but I don't really care 473 00:19:18,090 --> 00:19:16,600 because if we can I doubt that in my 474 00:19:21,750 --> 00:19:18,100 lifetime we will have a high-resolution 475 00:19:25,020 --> 00:19:21,760 spectrum of a molecule that that you 476 00:19:27,950 --> 00:19:25,030 know on a you know that's complex on on 477 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:27,960 any planet outside the solar system but 478 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:31,410 you know so that's the I I think I think 479 00:19:37,110 --> 00:19:34,810 progressing our specificity as time as 480 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:37,120 time and technology reached the various 481 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:38,530 points is probably what we need to do 482 00:19:47,010 --> 00:19:43,930 there yeah this is just a follow-on from 483 00:19:48,510 --> 00:19:47,020 Stephens first point that you know as an 484 00:19:49,980 --> 00:19:48,520 observer I look at this and I think you 485 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:49,990 know we're not gonna get past maybe at 486 00:19:55,830 --> 00:19:52,930 one point five at least five years maybe 487 00:19:57,420 --> 00:19:55,840 ten years yeah and if we so I wanted to 488 00:19:59,760 --> 00:19:57,430 hear in your sessions if you discussed 489 00:20:01,590 --> 00:19:59,770 the timing of when you would want people 490 00:20:02,610 --> 00:20:01,600 to actually start using this scale in 491 00:20:05,370 --> 00:20:02,620 the press do we want to do it 492 00:20:09,180 --> 00:20:05,380 immediately and report once for the next 493 00:20:10,860 --> 00:20:09,190 ten years I I think so I'm not afraid of 494 00:20:12,120 --> 00:20:10,870 having low values for a long time 495 00:20:14,070 --> 00:20:12,130 because everybody knows that the 496 00:20:17,370 --> 00:20:14,080 detection of life is a big deal and not 497 00:20:19,650 --> 00:20:17,380 necessarily happening this year and on 498 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:19,660 the flip side of it this is the kind of 499 00:20:24,150 --> 00:20:22,090 thing that might get taxpayers to say 500 00:20:26,100 --> 00:20:24,160 you know I really would like to see a 501 00:20:27,660 --> 00:20:26,110 five or six or a seven and they tell us 502 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:27,670 that if we build this telescope will get 503 00:20:31,260 --> 00:20:28,930 it and so let's do that 504 00:20:33,420 --> 00:20:31,270 and so it might be so the kind of thing